business-haroun/mba/ch49.org

#+title: Section 9 | Lesson 49 - Build Financial Statements for Private Companies
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* Links
- [[./../mba-main.org][TOC | Business]]
- [[https://www.udemy.com/course/an-entire-mba-in-1-courseaward-winning-business-school-prof/learn/lecture/4311932#overview][S09:L49. How to Build Financial Statements for Private Companies the Easy Way]]

* Notes
*** forecasts
- project 3-5 years
- start with sales projections
- called "pro forma"

*** definitions
- *ASP, Average Selling Price*
\[
\text{ASP} = \frac{\text{Total Revenue}}{\text{Total Units Sold}}
\]
- *TAM, Total Adjustable Market*
\[
\text{TAM} = \text{Number of Potential Customers} \times \text{ASP}
\]

- *Year over Year Growth*
        \[
        \text{Year Over Year Growth (\%)} = \left( \frac{\text{Units Sold in Current Year} - \text{Units Sold in Previous Year}}{\text{Units Sold in Previous Year}} \right) \times 100
        \]

  1. For the first year (2025): No growth is calculated because there is no previous year.
  2. For subsequent years:
     - Subtract the units sold in the previous year from the units sold in the current year.
     - Divide the result by the units sold in the previous year.
     - Multiply by 100 to express it as a percentage.

*** modeling a company
- start with TAM
  - how much %
  - how much time

*** list assumptions
- start with sales

** example market analysis spreadsheets
*** link:
[[../_data/market share spreadsheet.numbers][market share spreadsheet.numbers]]

* Market Analysis Table
| Item                           | Value       | Calculation                                     | Results          |
|--------------------------------+-------------+-------------------------------------------------+------------------|
| Number of Potential Customers  | 500,000     |                                                 |                  |
| ASP (Average Selling Price)    | ₪100,000.00 |                                                 |                  |
| TAM (Total Accessible Market)  |             | Num of Potential Custom * Average Selling Price | ₪50,000,000,000. |
| Percent Market Share (Year 10) | 10%         | Percent Market * Total Accessible Market        | ₪5,000,000,000   |
| Expected Units by Year 10      | 50,000      |                                                 |                  |



* Sales Growth Table
| Year | Title            | Units Sold | Year Over Year Growth % | Revenue           | Notes |
|------+------------------+------------+-------------------------+-------------------+-------|
| 2025 | units in year 1  |         20 |                     0.0 | ₪2,000,000.00     |       |
| 2026 | units in year 2  |        200 |                   900.0 | ₪20,000,000.00    |       |
| 2027 | units in year 3  |       4000 |                  1900.0 | ₪400,000,000.00   |       |
| 2028 | units in year 4  |       8400 |                   110.0 | ₪840,000,000.00   |       |
| 2029 | units in year 5  |      15540 |                    85.0 | ₪1,554,000,000.00 |       |
| 2030 | units in year 6  |      26418 |                    70.0 | ₪2,641,800,000.00 |       |
| 2031 | units in year 7  |      35664 |                    35.0 | ₪3,566,400,000.00 |       |
| 2032 | units in year 8  |      44580 |                    25.0 | ₪4,458,000,000.00 |       |
| 2033 | units in year 9  |      49038 |                    10.0 | ₪4,903,800,000.00 |       |
| 2034 | units in year 10 |      51490 |                     5.0 | ₪5,149,000,000.00 |       |
#+TBLFM: $4=if(@# > 2, ($3 / @-1$3 - 1) * 100, "");%.1f