diff --git a/market share spreadsheet.numbers b/market share spreadsheet.numbers new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8d4f7f3 Binary files /dev/null and b/market share spreadsheet.numbers differ diff --git a/mba/ch49.org b/mba/ch49.org index 2f156e4..17401a7 100644 --- a/mba/ch49.org +++ b/mba/ch49.org @@ -6,3 +6,58 @@ - [[https://www.udemy.com/course/an-entire-mba-in-1-courseaward-winning-business-school-prof/learn/lecture/4311932#overview][S09:L49. How to Build Financial Statements for Private Companies the Easy Way]] * Notes +*** forecasts +- project 3-5 years +- start with sales projections +- called "pro forma" + +*** definitions +- *ASP, Average Selling Price* +\[ +\text{ASP} = \frac{\text{Total Revenue}}{\text{Total Units Sold}} +\] +- *TAM, Total Adjustable Market* +\[ +\text{TAM} = \text{Number of Potential Customers} \times \text{ASP} +\] + +- *Year over Year Growth* + \[ + \text{Year Over Year Growth (\%)} = \left( \frac{\text{Units Sold in Current Year} - \text{Units Sold in Previous Year}}{\text{Units Sold in Previous Year}} \right) \times 100 + \] + + 1. For the first year (2025): No growth is calculated because there is no previous year. + 2. For subsequent years: + - Subtract the units sold in the previous year from the units sold in the current year. + - Divide the result by the units sold in the previous year. + - Multiply by 100 to express it as a percentage. + +*** modeling a company +- start with TAM + - how much % + - how much time + +*** list assumptions +- start with sales + +* Market Analysis Table +| Number of Potential Customers | 500,000 | | | +| ASP (Average Selling Price) | ₪100,000.00 | | | +| TAM (Number x ASP) | ₪50,000,000,000.00 | | | +| Percent Market Share (Year 10) | 10% | ₪5,000,000,000 | | +| Units by Year 10 | 50,000 | | | + +* Sales Growth Table +| Year | Title | Units Sold | Year Over Year Growth % | Revenue | Notes | +|------+------------------+------------+-------------------------+-------------------+-------| +| 2025 | units in year 1 | 20 | 0.0 | ₪2,000,000.00 | | +| 2026 | units in year 2 | 200 | 900.0 | ₪20,000,000.00 | | +| 2027 | units in year 3 | 4000 | 1900.0 | ₪400,000,000.00 | | +| 2028 | units in year 4 | 8400 | 110.0 | ₪840,000,000.00 | | +| 2029 | units in year 5 | 15540 | 85.0 | ₪1,554,000,000.00 | | +| 2030 | units in year 6 | 26418 | 70.0 | ₪2,641,800,000.00 | | +| 2031 | units in year 7 | 35664 | 35.0 | ₪3,566,400,000.00 | | +| 2032 | units in year 8 | 44580 | 25.0 | ₪4,458,000,000.00 | | +| 2033 | units in year 9 | 49038 | 10.0 | ₪4,903,800,000.00 | | +| 2034 | units in year 10 | 51490 | 5.0 | ₪5,149,000,000.00 | | +#+TBLFM: $4=if(@# > 2, ($3 / @-1$3 - 1) * 100, "");%.1f