diff --git a/_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers b/_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers index 987a8f3..ab3c39f 100644 Binary files a/_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers and b/_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers differ diff --git a/mba-main.org b/mba-main.org index ffb11b6..14a448b 100644 --- a/mba-main.org +++ b/mba-main.org @@ -65,3 +65,4 @@ ** Section 11 - Modeling and Valuation - [[./mba/ch58.org][Chapter 58. How to Build a Financial Model for a Public Company]] - [[./mba/ch59.org][Chapter 59. Read Financials like a book & find patterns in data]] +- [[./mba/ch60.org][Chapter 60. How to Value Public Firms the Easy Way]] diff --git a/mba/ch59.org b/mba/ch59.org index efae80a..0edd74b 100644 --- a/mba/ch59.org +++ b/mba/ch59.org @@ -196,24 +196,32 @@ This section of your financial course explains how to estimate the target price **** methodology 2: price vs revenue/sales -- assume the avg software company trades at 5x revenue in 5 years -- MSFT, being a big company that grows slowly, grows at 70% of avg - - so instead of trading 5x in 5 years, it will trade at 3x in 5 years -- therefore the [[file:finance_terms.org::*Market Capitalization (Market Cap)][market cap]] should be $504bn in 5 years - - market cap is $372 today, so this means 35% upside +***** useful for +- high growth companies with little or no earnings +- early-stage firms +- SaaS and tech companies - | | FY19e | FY20e | - |---------+----------+-------------| - | revenue | $128,530 | $143,953 | - |---------+----------+-------------| - | | | $503,835.69 | - | | | 36% | +***** forumula + \[ + \text{Target Share Price} = \text{Projected Revenue Per Share} + \text{Target P/S Multiple} + \] - ok, first thing is first. he claims the following + \[ + \text{Target Share Price} = \frac{\text{Projected Revenue}}{\text{Shares Outstanding}} \times \text{P/S Multiple} + \] -1. market cap is 372b today -2a. a company would normally be trading at 5x in 5 years -2b. in this case it will be 3x in 5 years bc it is a large company -3a. +***** step by step +1. calculate basics + - projected revenue + - number of shares at that time +2. choose a target P/S multiple + - depends on + - industry averages + - historical P/S range for the company + - growth rate (higher growth -> higher justified multiple) -|-|FY12|FY13|FY14|FY15e|FYo +3. divide the revenue by the shares and multiply by P/S mulitiple + + #+BEGIN_SRC + share price = (revenue / shares) * P/S Multiple + #+END_SRC diff --git a/mba/ch60.org b/mba/ch60.org new file mode 100644 index 0000000..62e3ed7 --- /dev/null +++ b/mba/ch60.org @@ -0,0 +1,237 @@ +#+title: Section 11 | Lesson 60 - How to value public firms the easy way +#+HTML_HEAD: +#+OPTIONS: H:6 + +* Links +- [[./../mba-main.org][TOC | Business]] +- [[https://www.udemy.com/course/an-entire-mba-in-1-courseaward-winning-business-school-prof/learn/lecture/4310022#overview][S11:L60 course video]] +- file:../_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers +- file:../_data/section_11/course_notes.pdf + +* notes + +** final cash flow explanation + +The "final cash flow" refers to the cash flow in the **last year of your explicit forecast** — typically Year 10 in a 10-year DCF model. + +It is used as the base to calculate the **terminal value**, which estimates all future cash flows from Year 11 to infinity. + +*** How to Determine the Expected Cash Flow + +This is the process to forecast expected cash flow for a future year: + +**** 1. Start with Historical Financials +- Gather at least 3–5 years of historical data +- Use sources like: Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, EDGAR (SEC), or company filings + + +**** 2. Choose the Right Cash Flow Metric +Use either: +- **Free Cash Flow (FCF)** = Operating Cash Flow – Capital Expenditures +- Or estimate **Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)** with: + #+BEGIN_SRC text + FCFF = EBIT × (1 - Tax Rate) + Depreciation - CapEx - ΔWorking Capital + #+END_SRC + +***** What the Components Mean + +- EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) :: Profit from the company’s core operations before interest and taxes are deducted. + +- Depreciation (Non-cash expense) :: A way to spread out the cost of physical assets over their useful life; it reduces taxable income but doesn't reduce actual cash. + +- CapEx (Capital Expenditures) :: Cash spent to buy or upgrade physical assets like equipment, property, or infrastructure. + +- Working Capital (Current Assets - Current Liabilities) :: Measures short-term liquidity; changes in it reflect how much cash is tied up in day-to-day operations. + +**** 3. Project Revenue Growth +- Estimate growth rate based on: + - Past performance + - Industry benchmarks + - Market conditions + - Company guidance + +**** 4. Forecast Expenses +- Express expenses as a **percentage of revenue** (e.g., COGS, SG&A) +- Estimate EBIT, taxes, CapEx, depreciation, and working capital changes + +**** 5. Project for 5–10 Years +- Do this for each year individually +- The last year's result is your **final cash flow** + +*** Example Forecast + +| Year | Revenue | EBIT Margin | EBIT | Taxes (20%) | FCFF | +|------|---------|-------------|--------|-------------|---------| +| 2024 | 100000 | 20% | 20000 | 4000 | 16000 | +| 2025 | 110000 | 21% | 23100 | 4620 | 18480 | +| 2026 | 120000 | 22% | 26400 | 5280 | 21120 | + +🧠 The FCFF in the final projected year (e.g., $21,120 in 2026) is what you use in the **terminal value formula**. + +*** Summary + +- The final cash flow is not the end of the business; it’s the **bridge** to estimating future value +- It should reflect the company’s stable, mature cash-generating potential +- Accuracy here has a **big impact** on the total DCF valuation + + +** how to calculate the beta + +Beta measures a stock's volatility relative to the market (typically the S&P 500). A beta of: + +- **1.0** → moves in line with the market +- **>1.0** → more volatile than the market +- **<1.0** → less volatile than the market + +Here’s how to find or calculate it: + +*** 1. Google Finance (Quick and Easy) + +1. Go to https://www.google.com/finance +2. Search for the company (e.g., Microsoft) +3. Scroll to the "Performance" section +4. Look for **"Beta"** + +🧠 Example: Microsoft’s beta may be listed as **0.78**, meaning it is 22% less volatile than the market. + +*** 2. Yahoo Finance + +1. Go to https://finance.yahoo.com +2. Search for the company (e.g., MSFT) +3. Click on **"Statistics"** +4. Under "Stock Price History", find **"Beta (5Y Monthly)"** + +*** 3. Bloomberg Terminal / Paid Services + +These are professional tools, often used in finance: + +- Bloomberg: `MSFT FA` +- Also available via: Morningstar, Reuters, FactSet + +*** 4. Manual Calculation (Advanced) + +If you want to calculate beta yourself: + +Formula: +#+BEGIN_SRC text +Beta = Covariance(Stock Return, Market Return) / Variance(Market Return) +#+END_SRC + +Steps: +1. Get historical prices for the stock and a market index (e.g., S&P 500) +2. Calculate periodic returns (daily, weekly, or monthly) +3. Compute covariance and variance +4. Apply the formula + +You can do this using: +- Excel (with `COVARIANCE.P()` and `VAR.P()` functions) +- Python (e.g., using pandas and NumPy) + +*** Summary + +- Use Google Finance or Yahoo Finance for quick lookups +- Use Bloomberg or Morningstar for professional-level data +- Calculate manually only if you're customizing the analysis + + +** Cost of Equity Calculation + +The cost of equity is the return investors expect for owning a company's stock. It's calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): + +Formula: +#+BEGIN_SRC text +Cost of Equity = Risk-free rate + Beta × Market Risk Premium + = 1% + 0.78 × 11% = 9.58% +#+END_SRC + +- **1%**: Risk-free rate (e.g., U.S. Treasury yield) +- **0.78**: Microsoft's beta (measures volatility relative to market) +- **11%**: Market risk premium (extra return expected above risk-free rate) + +🧠 Interpretation: +Investors expect a 9.58% annual return to compensate for the risk of owning Microsoft stock. + +** Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Basics + +DCF tells us how much a company is worth today, based on future expected profits. + +Steps: +1. Forecast future cash flows (e.g., next 10 years) +2. Discount each cash flow using the cost of equity (e.g., 9.58%) +3. Sum the discounted values + +Formula: +#+BEGIN_SRC text +Present Value = Cash Flow / (1 + r)^n +#+END_SRC + +Example: +- Year 1: $100 / (1 + 0.0958)^1 ≈ $91.27 +- Year 2: $100 / (1 + 0.0958)^2 ≈ $83.33 +- Year 3: $100 / (1 + 0.0958)^3 ≈ $76.07 +- Total Present Value ≈ $250.67 + +🧠 Interpretation: +A dollar in the future is worth less today. DCF converts all future profits into today’s dollars. + +** Terminal Value and Growth Limits + +What happens after the 10-year forecast? Use the Terminal Value to estimate value from Year 11 to infinity. + +Formula (Gordon Growth Model): +#+BEGIN_SRC text +Terminal Value = Final Year Cash Flow × (1 + g) / (r - g) +#+END_SRC + +Assumptions: +- Final Year Cash Flow = $20 billion +- g = 1% (long-term growth rate) +- r = 9.58% (discount rate) + +Example: +#+BEGIN_SRC text +TV = 20 × (1 + 0.01) / (0.0958 - 0.01) ≈ 235.41 billion +#+END_SRC + +🧠 Interpretation: +- This is the present value (as of Year 10) of all future profits beyond that year. +- We assume **low, steady growth** because no company can grow faster than the economy forever. +- This value must then be discounted back to today just like the other cash flows. + +** NPV in Excel + +You can calculate all the present values quickly using Excel’s `=NPV()` function. + +Steps: +1. Enter your forecasted cash flows into cells (e.g., B2:B6) +2. Add terminal value to the last cash flow (e.g., B6 = 14,000 + 150,000) +3. In an empty cell, enter: +#+BEGIN_SRC excel +=NPV(0.0958, B2:B6) +#+END_SRC + +🧠 Notes: +- Excel assumes cash flows happen at the end of each period. +- If you receive a cash flow today (Year 0), add it manually: +#+BEGIN_SRC excel +=InitialCashFlow + NPV(0.0958, B2:B6) +#+END_SRC + +🧠 Interpretation: +Excel returns the total **present value** of all the future income streams — meaning how much they are worth today, assuming a 9.58% expected return. + +** What "Present Value of Future Income Streams" Means + +"Present value of future income streams" means: + +- You're estimating how much a set of future cash payments is worth today. +- This accounts for risk, time, and opportunity cost. +- Future money is discounted using a rate (like 9.58%) to reflect these factors. + +🧠 Analogy: +If someone promises to pay you $10k every year for 5 years, that’s not worth $50k **today** — because of inflation and risk. You discount those payments to find out their **real value now**. + +🧠 Summary: +- It’s the foundation of DCF +- It gives you today’s value of tomorrow’s profits +- Helps investors decide if an investment is worthwhile