diff --git a/_data/market share spreadsheet.numbers b/_data/market share spreadsheet.numbers index 43a74be..1aa0d91 100644 Binary files a/_data/market share spreadsheet.numbers and b/_data/market share spreadsheet.numbers differ diff --git a/_share/media/sass/business.sass b/_share/media/sass/business.sass index 9767c71..cec0978 100644 --- a/_share/media/sass/business.sass +++ b/_share/media/sass/business.sass @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ @use "sass:map" @use "sass:color" -@use 'org-media-sass/default-org-mode' +@use 'org-media-sass/org-base' @use 'org-media-sass/themes/sienna-elegance' as * @use 'org-media-sass/fonts' as fonts diff --git a/_share/media/sass/org-media-sass b/_share/media/sass/org-media-sass index 1a79c3a..d6243a4 160000 --- a/_share/media/sass/org-media-sass +++ b/_share/media/sass/org-media-sass @@ -1 +1 @@ -Subproject commit 1a79c3af079f4c2d823cd41f4157a712b98c1d31 +Subproject commit d6243a4b2f2cb70e530857a4b1452c91a003b60d diff --git a/mba/ch50.org b/mba/ch50.org index 70eae94..27ce15a 100644 --- a/mba/ch50.org +++ b/mba/ch50.org @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ #+title: Section 9 | Lesson 50 - How to Value Private Companies and Growth Methods -#+HTML_HEAD: +#+HTML_HEAD: * Links - [[./../mba-main.org][TOC | Business]] @@ -195,3 +195,78 @@ assuming the IPO takes place in 2020 our valuation will be |------------------+--------------+----------------------------------------| | Growth Investors | Revenue x 10 | *₪13,994,400,000* | | Value Investors | EBIT x 10 | *₪6,577,368,000* | + +** sustainabile growth +*** how it works +- sustainable growth is the maximum growth rate a company can achieve without additional equity or debt financing + + \[ + \text{Sustainable Growth} = \frac{ \text{ending equity} - \text{beginning equity} }{\text{beginning equity}} + \] +- you want to grow BELOW the sustainable growth rate so as to not require outside help + +*** basic example + | sustainability growth example | | + |-------------------------------+------------------| + | beginning equity | $ 351,597,690 | + | ending equity | $ 860,108,490 | + | sustainable growth rate | 145% | + | 2020 growth rate | 98% | + +- not sure where he got the values for beg and ending equity. assuming it's from somewhere else because it doesn't actual match up + +- the values for growth rate probably come from EBIT or operational revenue, and if calculated using the growth rate formula, come out to 94% not 98% + +*** More extensive Example where dividend are 0 + +| Column Name | Value | Formula / Notes | +|---------------------------+----------------+-------------------------------------------------------| +| Year | 2020 | | +| Revenue | ₪1,399,440,000 | | +| COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) | ₪279,888,000 | | +| Gross Profit | ₪1,119,552,000 | Revenue - COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) | +| Operating Expenses Total | ₪461,815,200 | | +| Operating Profit (EBIT) | ₪657,736,800 | | +| Interest | ₪85,000 | Given | +| Tax | ₪159,764,269 | Assuming tax rate of 24.29% | +| Net Income | ₪497,887,531 | Operating Profit - Interest - Tax | +| Beginning Equity | ₪699,720,000 | | +| Ending Equity | ₪1,197,607,531 | Beginning Equity + Net Income | +| Average Equity | ₪948,663,765.5 | (Beginning Equity + Ending Equity) / 2 | +| Dividend Payout Ratio | 0.00 | | +| ROE (Return on Equity) | 52.48% | Net Income / Average Equity | +| Sustainable Growth Rate | 52.48% | ROE * (1 - Dividend Payout Ratio) | +| Actual Growth Rate | 71.16% | (Ending Equity - Beginning Equity) / Beginning Equity | + +- here beginning equity was based on 2019 Gross Profit +- different beginning equity values lead to VASTLY different results +- NOTE: you can see that the Sustainable Growth Rate, is very far bellow the Actual Growth Rate with 52.48% to 71.16% + +*** example where a dividend payout of 44% was expected + + +| Column Name | Value | Formula | +|---------------------------+----------------+-------------------------------------------------------| +| Year | 2020 | | +| Revenue | ₪1,399,440,000 | | +| COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) | ₪279,888,000 | | +| Gross Profit | ₪1,119,552,000 | Revenue - COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) | +| Operating Expenses Total | ₪461,815,200 | | +| Operating Profit (EBIT) | ₪657,736,800 | | +| Interest | ₪85,000 | Given | +| Tax | ₪159,764,269 | Assuming tax rate of 24.29% | +| Net Income | ₪497,887,531 | Operating Profit - Interest - Tax | +| Beginning Equity | ₪699,720,000 | | +| Ending Equity | ₪1,197,607,531 | Beginning Equity + Net Income | +| Average Equity | ₪948,663,765.5 | (Beginning Equity + Ending Equity) / 2 | +| Dividend Payout Ratio | 0.40 | | +| ROE (Return on Equity) | 52.48% | Net Income / Average Equity | +| Sustainable Growth Rate | 31.49% | ROE * (1 - Dividend Payout Ratio) | +| Actual Growth Rate | 71.16% | (Ending Equity - Beginning Equity) / Beginning Equity | + +- note the Sustainable Growth rate is worse at 31.49% +- incidentally if I try to change the Beginning Equity to a different metric, ie such as revenue which is around 999m, the SGR becomes EVEN WORSE + +*** retained earnings +- part of equity +- how much profit derived over the years