diff --git a/mba/ch66.org b/mba/ch66.org index ef073a4..956363e 100644 --- a/mba/ch66.org +++ b/mba/ch66.org @@ -7,3 +7,175 @@ - [[https://www.udemy.com/course/an-entire-mba-in-1-courseaward-winning-business-school-prof/learn/lecture/4301156#overview][S12:L66 course video]] * notes +- easier way to do [[*Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)][DCF]] +- [[*Net Present Value (NPV)][NPV]] + +* definitions +** Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) + In finance, DCF is a method used to estimate the value of an investment, company, or project + based on its expected future cash flows, adjusted for the time value of money. + +*** Basic Steps + 1. Forecast future cash flows (e.g., for the next –10 years) + 2. Choose a discount rate (often Weighted Average Cost of Capital, WACC) + 3. Discount each year’s cash flow to its present value + 4. Sum the present values to get the total estimated value + +*** Formula + #+BEGIN_SRC text + PV = Cash Flow in Year n / (1 + r)^n + #+END_SRC + Where: + - r = discount rate + - n = year number + - PV = present value + +*** Key Insight + The result represents the estimated worth of the investment *today* + based on its future cash-generating potential. + +** Net Present Value (NPV) +NPV is a financial metric used to determine the profitability of an investment or project by comparing the present value of cash inflows with the present value of cash outflows + +- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021115/what-formula-calculating-net-present-value-npv-excel.asp + +*** Purpose + - Shows whether an investment will add value to a business + - Helps compare different investment opportunities + +*** Formula + #+BEGIN_SRC text + NPV = Σ [ Cash Flow_t / (1 + r)^t ] − Initial Investment + #+END_SRC + Where: + - t = year iteration. ie, 1, 2, 3... not the actual year + - r = discount rate [[*Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)][WACC]] + - Cash Flow_t = cash flow at time t + +*** Python Formula +#+BEGIN_SRC python +def present_value(t, cash_flow, wacc): + """ + Calculate the present value of a future cash flow. + + Parameters: + t : int -> Year index (0 for present year, 1 for next year, etc.) + cash_flow : float -> Cash flow amount for year t + wacc : float -> Weighted Average Cost of Capital (as decimal, e.g., 0.08 for 8%) + + Returns: + float -> Present value of the given cash flow + """ + # Discount factor = (1 + WACC)^t + # The factor by which a future value is reduced to account for time & cost of capital + discount_factor = (1 + wacc) ** t + + # Present Value = Future Cash Flow / Discount Factor + return cash_flow / discount_factor +#+END_SRC + +#+BEGIN_SRC python +def npv_formula(cash_flow_list, wacc): + """ + Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) for a series of cash flows. + + Parameters: + cash_flow_list (list[float]): List of cash flows for each period, + where index 0 is the first period's cash flow. + wacc (float): Weighted Average Cost of Capital (discount rate) + expressed as a decimal (e.g., 0.08 for 8%). + + Returns: + float: Net Present Value (NPV) of the given cash flows. + + Notes: + Uses the present_value() function for discounting each cash flow. + Assumes cash flows occur at the end of each period. + """ + net_value = 0 + for index, cash_flow in enumerate(cash_flow_list): + net_value += present_value(t=index, cash_flow=cash_flow, wacc) + + return net_value +#+END_SRC + +#+BEGIN_SRC python +def npv_value(cash_flow_list, initial_outlay, wacc): + """ + Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) by subtracting the initial investment + from the present value of future cash flows. + + Parameters: + cash_flow_list (list[float]): List of future cash flows for each period, + where index 0 is the first period's cash flow. + initial_outlay (float): The initial investment or project cost. + wacc (float): Weighted Average Cost of Capital (discount rate) + expressed as a decimal (e.g., 0.08 for 8%). + + Returns: + float: Net Present Value (NPV). + + Notes: + This function calls net_pv() to calculate the sum of discounted + cash flows, then subtracts the initial_outlay. + """ + return net_pv(cash_flow_list, wacc) - initial_outlay +#+END_SRC + +*** Steps +1. Identify each expected cash inflow for future periods. +2. Discount each inflow using the discount rate \( r \) and period \( t \). +3. Add the discounted values together. +4. Subtract the initial investment cost. + +*** Interpretation + - NPV > 0 → Investment is profitable + - NPV = 0 → Break-even + - NPV < 0 → Investment will lose money + +*** Key Difference from DCF + - DCF is the method of valuing future cash flows + - NPV is the *result* after subtracting the initial cost from the DCF + +** Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) +*** Formula +#+BEGIN_SRC latex +WACC = \frac{E}{V} \times Re + \frac{D}{V} \times Rd \times (1 - Tc) +#+END_SRC + +*** Variables +- \( Re \) = [[*Cost of Equity (Re)][Cost of Equity]] +- \( Rd \) = [[*Cost of Debt (Rd)][Cost of Debt]] +- \( E \) = Market value of the firm's equity +- \( D \) = Market value of the firm's debt +- \( V \) = \( E + D \) (Total market value of financing) +- \( \frac{E}{V} \) = Percentage of financing that is equity +- \( \frac{D}{V} \) = Percentage of financing that is debt +- \( Tc \) = Corporate tax rate + +*** Notes +- WACC represents the average rate that a company is expected to pay to finance its assets. +- It is used as the discount rate in DCF calculations. + +** Cost of Equity (Re) + - The return required by equity investors for investing in a company. + - Often estimated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): + #+BEGIN_SRC + Re = Rf + β * (Rm - Rf) + Rf = Risk-free rate + β = Beta (measure of stock's volatility vs. market) + Rm = Expected market return + #+END_SRC + +** Cost of Debt (Rd) + - The effective interest rate a company pays on its borrowed funds, adjusted for tax savings. + - Formula: + #+BEGIN_SRC + Rd = Effective Interest Rate * (1 - Tc) + #+END_SRC + - Example: + #+BEGIN_SRC + If Effective Interest Rate = 6% + Tc = 25% + Rd = 0.06 * (1 - 0.25) = 0.045 (4.5%) + #+END_SRC