diff --git a/_data/section_11/course_notes.pdf b/_data/section_11/course_notes.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2731d75 Binary files /dev/null and b/_data/section_11/course_notes.pdf differ diff --git a/_data/market share spreadsheet.numbers b/_data/section_11/market share spreadsheet.numbers similarity index 50% rename from _data/market share spreadsheet.numbers rename to _data/section_11/market share spreadsheet.numbers index 94bd38a..7e13107 100644 Binary files a/_data/market share spreadsheet.numbers and b/_data/section_11/market share spreadsheet.numbers differ diff --git a/_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers b/_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a825107 Binary files /dev/null and b/_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers differ diff --git a/_data/section_11/msft/Stockholders__Equity_Statements.csv b/_data/section_11/msft/Stockholders__Equity_Statements.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f6926ae --- /dev/null +++ b/_data/section_11/msft/Stockholders__Equity_Statements.csv @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +Category,2012,2011,2010 +Common stock and paid-in capital,,, +"Balance, beginning of period",63415,62856,62382 +Common stock issued,1924,2422,2311 +Common stock repurchased,-1714,-3738,-3113 +Stock-based compensation expense,2244,2166,1891 +Stock-based compensation income tax deficiencies,-75,-292,-647 +"Other, net",3,1,32 +"Balance, end of period",65797,63415,62856 +Retained earnings (deficit),,, +"Balance, beginning of period",-6332,-16681,-22824 +Net income,16978,23150,18760 +Other comprehensive income:,,, +Net unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives,255,-627,27 +Net unrealized gains (losses) on investments,-390,1054,265 +Translation adjustments and other,-306,381,-206 +Comprehensive income,16537,23958,18846 +Common stock cash dividends,-6721,-5394,-4547 +Common stock repurchased,-2918,-8215,-8156 +"Balance, end of period",566,-6332,-16681 +Total stockholders’ equity,66363,57083,46175 diff --git a/_data/section_11/msft/_t1.csv b/_data/section_11/msft/_t1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..689ac74 --- /dev/null +++ b/_data/section_11/msft/_t1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ +Category,2012,2011,2010 +Revenue,73723,69943,62484 +Operating expenses:,,, +Cost of revenue,17530,15577,12395 +Research and development,9811,9043,8714 +Sales and marketing,13857,13940,13214 +General and administrative,4569,4222,4063 +Goodwill impairment,6193,0,0 +Total operating expenses,51960,42782,38386 +Operating income,21763,27161,24098 +Other income,504,910,915 +Income before income taxes,22267,28071,25013 +Provision for income taxes,5289,4921,6253 +Net income,16978,23150,18760 +Earnings per share:,,, +Basic,2.02,2.73,2.13 +Diluted,2.0,2.69,2.1 +Weighted average shares outstanding:,,, +Basic,8396,8490,8813 +Diluted,8506,8593,8927 +Cash dividends declared per common share,0.8,0.64,0.52 +Assets,,, +Current assets:,,, +Cash and cash equivalents,6938,9610, +Short-term investments,56102,43162, +"Total cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments",63040,52772, +"Accounts receivable, net",15780,14987, +Inventories,1137,1372, +Deferred income taxes,2035,2467, +Other,3092,3320, +Total current assets,85084,74918, +"Property and equipment, net",8269,8162, +Equity and other investments,9776,10865, +Goodwill,13452,12581, +"Intangible assets, net",3170,744, +Other long-term assets,1520,1434, +Total assets,121271,108704, +Liabilities and stockholders’ equity,,, +Current liabilities:,,, +Accounts payable,4175,4197, +Current portion of long-term debt,1231,0, +Accrued compensation,3875,3575, +Income taxes,789,580, +Short-term unearned revenue,18653,15722, +Securities lending payable,814,1208, +Other,3151,3492, +Total current liabilities,32688,28774, +Long-term debt,10713,11921, +Long-term unearned revenue,1406,1398, +Deferred income taxes,1893,1456, +Other long-term liabilities,8208,8072, +Total liabilities,54908,51621, +Commitments and contingencies,,, +Stockholders’ equity:,,, +Common stock and paid-in capital,65797,63415, +Retained earnings (deficit),566,-6332, +Total stockholders’ equity,66363,57083, +Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity,121271,108704, diff --git a/_data/section_11/msft/cash_flows__Updated_.csv b/_data/section_11/msft/cash_flows__Updated_.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..494d033 --- /dev/null +++ b/_data/section_11/msft/cash_flows__Updated_.csv @@ -0,0 +1,43 @@ +Category,2012,2011,2010 +Operations,,, +Net income,16978,23150,18760 +Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash from operations:,,, +Goodwill impairment,6193,0,0 +"Depreciation, amortization, and other",2967,2766,2673 +Stock-based compensation expense,2244,2166,1891 +Net recognized gains on investments and derivatives,-200,-362,-208 +Excess tax benefits from stock-based compensation,-93,-17,-45 +Deferred income taxes,954,2,-220 +Deferral of unearned revenue,36104,31227,29374 +Recognition of unearned revenue,-33347,-28935,-28813 +Changes in operating assets and liabilities:,,, +Accounts receivable,-1156,-1451,-2238 +Inventories,184,-561,-44 +Other current assets,493,-1259,464 +Other long-term assets,-248,62,-223 +Accounts payable,-31,58,844 +Other current liabilities,410,-1146,451 +Other long-term liabilities,174,1294,1407 +Net cash from operations,31626,26994,24073 +Financing,,, +"Short-term debt repayments, maturities of 90 days or less, net",0,-186,-991 +"Proceeds from issuance of debt, maturities longer than 90 days",0,6960,4167 +"Repayments of debt, maturities longer than 90 days",0,-814,-2986 +Common stock issued,1913,2422,2311 +Common stock repurchased,-5029,-11555,-11269 +Common stock cash dividends paid,-6385,-5180,-4578 +Excess tax benefits from stock-based compensation,93,17,45 +Other,0,-40,10 +Net cash used in financing,-9408,-8376,-13291 +Investing,,, +Additions to property and equipment,-2305,-2355,-1977 +"Acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired",-10112,-71,-245 +Purchases of investments,-57250,-35993,-30168 +Maturities of investments,15575,6897,7453 +Sales of investments,29700,15880,15125 +Securities lending payable,-394,1026,-1502 +Net cash used in investing,-24786,-14616,-11314 +Effect of exchange rates on cash and cash equivalents,-104,103,-39 +Net change in cash and cash equivalents,-2672,4105,-571 +"Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of period",9610,5505,6076 +"Cash and cash equivalents, end of period",6938,9610,5505 diff --git a/_data/section_11/msft/msfk_10k_2012.pdf b/_data/section_11/msft/msfk_10k_2012.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000..da0f5f5 Binary files /dev/null and b/_data/section_11/msft/msfk_10k_2012.pdf differ diff --git a/_data/section_11/msft/msfk_10k_2012.xlsx b/_data/section_11/msft/msfk_10k_2012.xlsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d75cd87 Binary files /dev/null and b/_data/section_11/msft/msfk_10k_2012.xlsx differ diff --git a/_data/section_11/msft/msfk_10k_2013.pdf b/_data/section_11/msft/msfk_10k_2013.pdf new file mode 100644 index 0000000..44c353d Binary files 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@@ * Links - [[./../mba-main.org][TOC | Business]] - [[https://www.udemy.com/course/an-entire-mba-in-1-courseaward-winning-business-school-prof/learn/lecture/4315028#overview][S11:L59 course video]] +- file:../_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers +- file:../_data/section_11/course_notes.pdf * Notes @@ -37,6 +39,61 @@ - publish on website - publish on webcasts +** calculate net income +1. calculate operating expenses + \text{Operating Expenses} = \text{R&D} + \text{Sales & Marketing} + \text{G&A} + +2. calculate operating income (EBIT) + EBIT=Gross Profit−Operating Expenses + +3. calcuate taxes + - assume taxes are 21% of EBIT + + Taxes=EBIT×21% + +4. calculate net income + + Net Income=EBIT−Taxes + +** calculate forecasted fields +*** Operating Expenses + \[ + \text{Operating Expenses} = \text{R&D} + \text{Sales & Marketing} + \text{G&A} + \] + +*** Operating Income (EBIT) + \[ + \text{EBIT} = \text{Gross Profit} - \text{Operating Expenses} + \] + +*** Taxes + - Assume taxes are 21% of EBIT + \[ + \text{Taxes} = \text{EBIT} \times 21\% + \] + +*** Net Income + \[ + \text{Net Income} = \text{EBIT} - \text{Taxes} + \] + +*** Stock Price +- calculate the YOY trend for all the years you have stock price data +\[ +\text{YOY} = \text{SPnow} - \text{SPprev} / \text{SPprev} +\] +- forecast using the previous YOY and project what it will be going forward +\[ +\text{SPnow} = \text{SPprev} * \text{(1 + YOY)} +\] + +*** Shares +*note: we don't actually have this info* + + \[ +\text{Share} = \text{Net Income} / \text{Diluted Earnings per share} + \] + ** valuation - create a forecast - got earnings per share @@ -117,3 +174,20 @@ This section of your financial course explains how to estimate the target price - MSFT, being a big company that grows slowly, grows at 70% of avg - so instead of trading 5x in 5 years, it will trade at 3x in 5 years - therefore the [[file:finance_terms.org::*Market Capitalization (Market Cap)][market cap]] should be $504bn in 5 years + - market cap is $372 today, so this means 35% upside + + | | FY19e | FY20e | + |---------+----------+-------------| + | revenue | $128,530 | $143,953 | + |---------+----------+-------------| + | | | $503,835.69 | + | | | 36% | + + ok, first thing is first. he claims the following + +1. market cap is 372b today +2a. a company would normally be trading at 5x in 5 years +2b. in this case it will be 3x in 5 years bc it is a large company +3a. + +|-|FY12|FY13|FY14|FY15e|FYo