diff --git a/_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers b/_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers index a825107..987a8f3 100644 Binary files a/_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers and b/_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers differ diff --git a/mba/ch59.org b/mba/ch59.org index ffb3772..efae80a 100644 --- a/mba/ch59.org +++ b/mba/ch59.org @@ -41,19 +41,24 @@ ** calculate net income 1. calculate operating expenses + \[ \text{Operating Expenses} = \text{R&D} + \text{Sales & Marketing} + \text{G&A} + \] 2. calculate operating income (EBIT) - EBIT=Gross Profit−Operating Expenses + \[ + \text{EBIT} = \text{Gross Profit} − \text{Operating Expenses} + \] -3. calcuate taxes - - assume taxes are 21% of EBIT - - Taxes=EBIT×21% +3. calcuate taxes (assume taxes are 21% of EBIT) + \[ + \text{Taxes}= \text{EBIT} × \text{21%} + \] 4. calculate net income - - Net Income=EBIT−Taxes + \[ + \text{Net Income} = \text{EBIT} − \text{Taxes} + \] ** calculate forecasted fields *** Operating Expenses @@ -77,24 +82,45 @@ \text{Net Income} = \text{EBIT} - \text{Taxes} \] -*** Stock Price -- calculate the YOY trend for all the years you have stock price data -\[ -\text{YOY} = \text{SPnow} - \text{SPprev} / \text{SPprev} -\] -- forecast using the previous YOY and project what it will be going forward -\[ -\text{SPnow} = \text{SPprev} * \text{(1 + YOY)} -\] - *** Shares -*note: we don't actually have this info* +**** Where We Have the Information +- When historical data is available, derive share count using net income and diluted EPS: \[ -\text{Share} = \text{Net Income} / \text{Diluted Earnings per share} + \text{Shares} = \frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Diluted EPS}} \] -** valuation +- For forward projections, we reverse this: project shares first, then derive EPS. + +**** Assumed Share Growth by Company Type + +| Company Type | Assumed Annual Share Growth | +|---------------------------+----------------------------------| +| High-growth tech | 5–8% | +| Mid-sized growth firm | 3–5% | +| Blue chip or cash-stable | 0–2% or flat/shrinking via buybacks | + +**** Core Financial Projection Assumptions + +| Element | Assumption | +|-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------| +| Shares | Project using a realistic dilution rate (e.g., 3–5%) unless buybacks occur | +| Net Income | Calculate as EBIT × (1 - tax rate), based on revenue projections | +| EPS | Net Income / Shares | + + +*** EPS +- For projected years, calculate EPS based on projected net income and projected shares. +- Maintain a YOY column for EPS to support stock price modeling. + +*** Stock Price + +- Stock price should be projected based on fundamentals, not simple historical price growth. +- Use a mix of valuation models (outlined below) to estimate target price. +- These models are based on earnings, revenue, and comparable multiples. + + +** valuation of stock price - create a forecast - got earnings per share - listed assumptions