55 lines
1.9 KiB
Org Mode
55 lines
1.9 KiB
Org Mode
#+title: Section 11 | Lesson 59 - read financials and find data patterns
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#+HTML_HEAD: <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="../_share/media/css/org-media-sass/categories/business.css" />
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#+OPTIONS: H:6
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* Links
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- [[./../mba-main.org][TOC | Business]]
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- [[https://www.udemy.com/course/an-entire-mba-in-1-courseaward-winning-business-school-prof/learn/lecture/4315028#overview][S11:L59 course video]]
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* Notes
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- MS changed from a growth stock to a value stock
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- growth investors loved it
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- bill gates left and the company became a bureacracy
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- dont ever invest in a tech company where the founder is gone
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- they are buying back shares
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** forecast revenue
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- forecast each year after the next
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- not looking at each
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- add assumptions 'why' something will happen
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- e.g. 2016 Windows 10 is free for the first year, but the second year cost
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- xbox sales slowing
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- good because factories are less profitable
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- the new director was good with clouds and clouds are good for $
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*** how to build the model
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- read the 10k
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- go to investors website and read relations stuff
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- last 15 minutes of conference wall street guys ask questions
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- call investor relations directly and ask them
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- make sure you do your due dilligence
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- the relations guys will bs you if you don't know your stuff
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- you have the same access as analysts do
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- reg fd: regulation federal disclosure
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- government mandatated
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- everyone has the same access
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- publish on website
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- publish on webcasts
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** valuation
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- create a forecast
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- got earnings per share
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- listed assumptions
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*** how to make a target price
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- 3 methodologies
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- do all of them and take an average
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- keep it simple
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**** methodology 1: price / earnings ratio
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- target price should be based on estimates 5 years from now
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- more or less relevant
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- don't be a victim of group think
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- estimate what is the percentage of growth in 5 years
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- multiply the EPS (Earnings per share) by that number
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