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mba/ch59.org

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 - [[https://www.udemy.com/course/an-entire-mba-in-1-courseaward-winning-business-school-prof/learn/lecture/4315028#overview][S11:L59 course video]]
 
 * Notes
-#+title: Ch59
+
+- MS changed from a growth stock to a value stock
+- growth investors loved it
+- bill gates left and the company became a bureacracy
+- dont ever invest in a tech company where the founder is gone
+- they are buying back shares
+
+** forecast revenue
+- forecast each year after the next
+  - not looking at each
+- add assumptions 'why' something will happen
+  - e.g. 2016 Windows 10 is free for the first year, but the second year cost
+  - xbox sales slowing
+    - good because factories are less profitable
+  - the new director was good with clouds and clouds are good for $
+
+*** how to build the model
+- read the 10k
+- go to investors website and read relations stuff
+- last 15 minutes of conference wall street guys ask questions
+- call investor relations directly and ask them
+  - make sure you do your due dilligence
+  - the relations guys will bs you if you don't know your stuff
+- you have the same access as analysts do
+  - reg fd: regulation federal disclosure
+    - government mandatated
+    - everyone has the same access
+      - publish on website
+      - publish on webcasts
+
+** valuation
+- create a forecast
+  - got earnings per share
+  - listed assumptions
+
+*** how to make a target price
+- 3 methodologies
+- do all of them and take an average
+- keep it simple
+
+**** methodology 1:  price / earnings ratio
+- target price should be based on estimates 5 years from now
+  - more or less relevant
+  - don't be a victim of group think
+- estimate what is the percentage of growth in 5 years
+- multiply the EPS (Earnings per share) by that number