added market share

mba/ch49.org

@@ -6,3 +6,58 @@
 - [[https://www.udemy.com/course/an-entire-mba-in-1-courseaward-winning-business-school-prof/learn/lecture/4311932#overview][S09:L49. How to Build Financial Statements for Private Companies the Easy Way]]
 
 * Notes
+*** forecasts
+- project 3-5 years
+- start with sales projections
+- called "pro forma"
+
+*** definitions
+- *ASP, Average Selling Price*
+\[
+\text{ASP} = \frac{\text{Total Revenue}}{\text{Total Units Sold}}
+\]
+- *TAM, Total Adjustable Market*
+\[
+\text{TAM} = \text{Number of Potential Customers} \times \text{ASP}
+\]
+
+- *Year over Year Growth*
+        \[
+        \text{Year Over Year Growth (\%)} = \left( \frac{\text{Units Sold in Current Year} - \text{Units Sold in Previous Year}}{\text{Units Sold in Previous Year}} \right) \times 100
+        \]
+
+  1. For the first year (2025): No growth is calculated because there is no previous year.
+  2. For subsequent years:
+     - Subtract the units sold in the previous year from the units sold in the current year.
+     - Divide the result by the units sold in the previous year.
+     - Multiply by 100 to express it as a percentage.
+
+*** modeling a company
+- start with TAM
+  - how much %
+  - how much time
+
+*** list assumptions
+- start with sales
+
+* Market Analysis Table
+| Number of Potential Customers  | 500,000            |                |   |
+| ASP (Average Selling Price)    | ₪100,000.00        |                |   |
+| TAM (Number x ASP)             | ₪50,000,000,000.00 |                |   |
+| Percent Market Share (Year 10) | 10%                | ₪5,000,000,000 |   |
+| Units by Year 10               | 50,000             |                |   |
+
+* Sales Growth Table
+| Year | Title            | Units Sold | Year Over Year Growth % | Revenue           | Notes |
+|------+------------------+------------+-------------------------+-------------------+-------|
+| 2025 | units in year 1  |         20 |                     0.0 | ₪2,000,000.00     |       |
+| 2026 | units in year 2  |        200 |                   900.0 | ₪20,000,000.00    |       |
+| 2027 | units in year 3  |       4000 |                  1900.0 | ₪400,000,000.00   |       |
+| 2028 | units in year 4  |       8400 |                   110.0 | ₪840,000,000.00   |       |
+| 2029 | units in year 5  |      15540 |                    85.0 | ₪1,554,000,000.00 |       |
+| 2030 | units in year 6  |      26418 |                    70.0 | ₪2,641,800,000.00 |       |
+| 2031 | units in year 7  |      35664 |                    35.0 | ₪3,566,400,000.00 |       |
+| 2032 | units in year 8  |      44580 |                    25.0 | ₪4,458,000,000.00 |       |
+| 2033 | units in year 9  |      49038 |                    10.0 | ₪4,903,800,000.00 |       |
+| 2034 | units in year 10 |      51490 |                     5.0 | ₪5,149,000,000.00 |       |
+#+TBLFM: $4=if(@# > 2, ($3 / @-1$3 - 1) * 100, "");%.1f