added info on calculations

_data/section_11/msft/Stockholders__Equity_Statements.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+Category,2012,2011,2010
+Common stock and paid-in capital,,,
+"Balance, beginning of period",63415,62856,62382
+Common stock issued,1924,2422,2311
+Common stock repurchased,-1714,-3738,-3113
+Stock-based compensation expense,2244,2166,1891
+Stock-based compensation income tax deficiencies,-75,-292,-647
+"Other, net",3,1,32
+"Balance, end of period",65797,63415,62856
+Retained earnings (deficit),,,
+"Balance, beginning of period",-6332,-16681,-22824
+Net income,16978,23150,18760
+Other comprehensive income:,,,
+Net unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives,255,-627,27
+Net unrealized gains (losses) on investments,-390,1054,265
+Translation adjustments and other,-306,381,-206
+Comprehensive income,16537,23958,18846
+Common stock cash dividends,-6721,-5394,-4547
+Common stock repurchased,-2918,-8215,-8156
+"Balance, end of period",566,-6332,-16681
+Total stockholders’ equity,66363,57083,46175

_data/section_11/msft/_t1.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+Category,2012,2011,2010
+Revenue,73723,69943,62484
+Operating expenses:,,,
+Cost of revenue,17530,15577,12395
+Research and development,9811,9043,8714
+Sales and marketing,13857,13940,13214
+General and administrative,4569,4222,4063
+Goodwill impairment,6193,0,0
+Total operating expenses,51960,42782,38386
+Operating income,21763,27161,24098
+Other income,504,910,915
+Income before income taxes,22267,28071,25013
+Provision for income taxes,5289,4921,6253
+Net income,16978,23150,18760
+Earnings per share:,,,
+Basic,2.02,2.73,2.13
+Diluted,2.0,2.69,2.1
+Weighted average shares outstanding:,,,
+Basic,8396,8490,8813
+Diluted,8506,8593,8927
+Cash dividends declared per common share,0.8,0.64,0.52
+Assets,,,
+Current assets:,,,
+Cash and cash equivalents,6938,9610,
+Short-term investments,56102,43162,
+"Total cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments",63040,52772,
+"Accounts receivable, net",15780,14987,
+Inventories,1137,1372,
+Deferred income taxes,2035,2467,
+Other,3092,3320,
+Total current assets,85084,74918,
+"Property and equipment, net",8269,8162,
+Equity and other investments,9776,10865,
+Goodwill,13452,12581,
+"Intangible assets, net",3170,744,
+Other long-term assets,1520,1434,
+Total assets,121271,108704,
+Liabilities and stockholders’ equity,,,
+Current liabilities:,,,
+Accounts payable,4175,4197,
+Current portion of long-term debt,1231,0,
+Accrued compensation,3875,3575,
+Income taxes,789,580,
+Short-term unearned revenue,18653,15722,
+Securities lending payable,814,1208,
+Other,3151,3492,
+Total current liabilities,32688,28774,
+Long-term debt,10713,11921,
+Long-term unearned revenue,1406,1398,
+Deferred income taxes,1893,1456,
+Other long-term liabilities,8208,8072,
+Total liabilities,54908,51621,
+Commitments and contingencies,,,
+Stockholders’ equity:,,,
+Common stock and paid-in capital,65797,63415,
+Retained earnings (deficit),566,-6332,
+Total stockholders’ equity,66363,57083,
+Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity,121271,108704,

_data/section_11/msft/cash_flows__Updated_.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+Category,2012,2011,2010
+Operations,,,
+Net income,16978,23150,18760
+Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash from operations:,,,
+Goodwill impairment,6193,0,0
+"Depreciation, amortization, and other",2967,2766,2673
+Stock-based compensation expense,2244,2166,1891
+Net recognized gains on investments and derivatives,-200,-362,-208
+Excess tax benefits from stock-based compensation,-93,-17,-45
+Deferred income taxes,954,2,-220
+Deferral of unearned revenue,36104,31227,29374
+Recognition of unearned revenue,-33347,-28935,-28813
+Changes in operating assets and liabilities:,,,
+Accounts receivable,-1156,-1451,-2238
+Inventories,184,-561,-44
+Other current assets,493,-1259,464
+Other long-term assets,-248,62,-223
+Accounts payable,-31,58,844
+Other current liabilities,410,-1146,451
+Other long-term liabilities,174,1294,1407
+Net cash from operations,31626,26994,24073
+Financing,,,
+"Short-term debt repayments, maturities of 90 days or less, net",0,-186,-991
+"Proceeds from issuance of debt, maturities longer than 90 days",0,6960,4167
+"Repayments of debt, maturities longer than 90 days",0,-814,-2986
+Common stock issued,1913,2422,2311
+Common stock repurchased,-5029,-11555,-11269
+Common stock cash dividends paid,-6385,-5180,-4578
+Excess tax benefits from stock-based compensation,93,17,45
+Other,0,-40,10
+Net cash used in financing,-9408,-8376,-13291
+Investing,,,
+Additions to property and equipment,-2305,-2355,-1977
+"Acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired",-10112,-71,-245
+Purchases of investments,-57250,-35993,-30168
+Maturities of investments,15575,6897,7453
+Sales of investments,29700,15880,15125
+Securities lending payable,-394,1026,-1502
+Net cash used in investing,-24786,-14616,-11314
+Effect of exchange rates on cash and cash equivalents,-104,103,-39
+Net change in cash and cash equivalents,-2672,4105,-571
+"Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of period",9610,5505,6076
+"Cash and cash equivalents, end of period",6938,9610,5505

definitions.org

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+#+title: Definitions

mba/ch59.org

@@ -5,6 +5,8 @@
 * Links
 - [[./../mba-main.org][TOC | Business]]
 - [[https://www.udemy.com/course/an-entire-mba-in-1-courseaward-winning-business-school-prof/learn/lecture/4315028#overview][S11:L59 course video]]
+- file:../_data/section_11/microsoft_valuation.numbers
+- file:../_data/section_11/course_notes.pdf
 
 * Notes
 
@@ -37,6 +39,61 @@
       - publish on website
       - publish on webcasts
 
+** calculate net income
+1. calculate operating expenses
+   \text{Operating Expenses} = \text{R&D} + \text{Sales & Marketing} + \text{G&A}
+
+2. calculate operating income (EBIT)
+   EBIT=Gross Profit−Operating Expenses
+
+3. calcuate taxes
+   - assume taxes are 21% of EBIT
+
+     Taxes=EBIT×21%
+
+4. calculate net income
+
+   Net Income=EBIT−Taxes
+
+** calculate forecasted fields
+*** Operating Expenses
+   \[
+   \text{Operating Expenses} = \text{R&D} + \text{Sales & Marketing} + \text{G&A}
+   \]
+
+*** Operating Income (EBIT)
+   \[
+   \text{EBIT} = \text{Gross Profit} - \text{Operating Expenses}
+   \]
+
+*** Taxes
+   - Assume taxes are 21% of EBIT
+     \[
+     \text{Taxes} = \text{EBIT} \times 21\%
+     \]
+
+*** Net Income
+   \[
+   \text{Net Income} = \text{EBIT} - \text{Taxes}
+   \]
+
+*** Stock Price
+- calculate the YOY trend for all the years you have stock price data
+\[
+\text{YOY} = \text{SPnow} - \text{SPprev} / \text{SPprev}
+\]
+- forecast using the previous YOY and project what it will be going forward
+\[
+\text{SPnow} = \text{SPprev} * \text{(1 + YOY)}
+\]
+
+*** Shares
+*note: we don't actually have this info*
+
+   \[
+\text{Share} = \text{Net Income} / \text{Diluted Earnings per share}
+   \]
+
 ** valuation
 - create a forecast
   - got earnings per share
@@ -117,3 +174,20 @@ This section of your financial course explains how to estimate the target price
 - MSFT, being a big company that grows slowly, grows at 70% of avg
   - so instead of trading 5x in 5 years, it will trade at 3x in 5 years
 - therefore the [[file:finance_terms.org::*Market Capitalization (Market Cap)][market cap]] should be $504bn in 5 years
+  - market cap is $372 today, so this means 35% upside
+
+    |         | FY19e    | FY20e       |
+    |---------+----------+-------------|
+    | revenue | $128,530 | $143,953    |
+    |---------+----------+-------------|
+    |         |          | $503,835.69 |
+    |         |          | 36%         |
+
+    ok, first thing is first.  he claims the following
+
+1. market cap is 372b today
+2a. a company would normally be trading at 5x in 5 years
+2b. in this case it will be 3x in 5 years bc it is a large company
+3a.
+
+|-|FY12|FY13|FY14|FY15e|FYo