update

mba/ch59.org

@@ -41,19 +41,24 @@
 
 ** calculate net income
 1. calculate operating expenses
+   \[
    \text{Operating Expenses} = \text{R&D} + \text{Sales & Marketing} + \text{G&A}
+   \]
 
 2. calculate operating income (EBIT)
-   EBIT=Gross Profit−Operating Expenses
+   \[
+   \text{EBIT} = \text{Gross Profit} − \text{Operating Expenses}
+   \]
 
-3. calcuate taxes
-   - assume taxes are 21% of EBIT
-
-     Taxes=EBIT×21%
+3. calcuate taxes (assume taxes are 21% of EBIT)
+     \[
+     \text{Taxes}= \text{EBIT} × \text{21%}
+     \]
 
 4. calculate net income
-
-   Net Income=EBIT−Taxes
+   \[
+   \text{Net Income} = \text{EBIT} − \text{Taxes}
+   \]
 
 ** calculate forecasted fields
 *** Operating Expenses
@@ -77,24 +82,45 @@
    \text{Net Income} = \text{EBIT} - \text{Taxes}
    \]
 
-*** Stock Price
-- calculate the YOY trend for all the years you have stock price data
-\[
-\text{YOY} = \text{SPnow} - \text{SPprev} / \text{SPprev}
-\]
-- forecast using the previous YOY and project what it will be going forward
-\[
-\text{SPnow} = \text{SPprev} * \text{(1 + YOY)}
-\]
-
 *** Shares
-*note: we don't actually have this info*
 
+**** Where We Have the Information
+- When historical data is available, derive share count using net income and diluted EPS:
    \[
-\text{Share} = \text{Net Income} / \text{Diluted Earnings per share}
+   \text{Shares} = \frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Diluted EPS}}
    \]
 
-** valuation
+- For forward projections, we reverse this: project shares first, then derive EPS.
+
+**** Assumed Share Growth by Company Type
+
+| Company Type              | Assumed Annual Share Growth      |
+|---------------------------+----------------------------------|
+| High-growth tech          | 5–8%                             |
+| Mid-sized growth firm     | 3–5%                             |
+| Blue chip or cash-stable  | 0–2% or flat/shrinking via buybacks |
+
+**** Core Financial Projection Assumptions
+
+| Element     | Assumption                                                       |
+|-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------|
+| Shares      | Project using a realistic dilution rate (e.g., 3–5%) unless buybacks occur |
+| Net Income  | Calculate as EBIT × (1 - tax rate), based on revenue projections |
+| EPS         | Net Income / Shares                                              |
+
+
+*** EPS
+- For projected years, calculate EPS based on projected net income and projected shares.
+- Maintain a YOY column for EPS to support stock price modeling.
+
+*** Stock Price
+
+- Stock price should be projected based on fundamentals, not simple historical price growth.
+- Use a mix of valuation models (outlined below) to estimate target price.
+- These models are based on earnings, revenue, and comparable multiples.
+
+
+** valuation of stock price
 - create a forecast
   - got earnings per share
   - listed assumptions