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Section 8 | Lesson 45 - Risk & Return, Business Statistics, Security Law

Notes

debt

  • senior debt: debt secured via access to assets upon default

    • they have the first claim on company if you go belly up
  • subordinate debt: less rights

risk and return

expected return

equity return

  • profit or loss generated on an investment in equity (owneship interest in a company) over a specific period
  • expressed as a percentage of the original investment amount

components of equity return

  • capital gains: increase in stock price
  • dividends: payments made to shareholders

    • cash
    • additional shares

formula for equity return

\[ \text{Equity Return} = \frac{(\text{Ending Price} - \text{Initial Price}) + \text{Dividends}}{\text{Initial Price}} \times 100 \]

formula for public equity return

\[ \text{Equity Return} = \text{Risk Free Rate} + \text{Volatility} x \text{Outperformance} \]

  • returns from publicly traded stocks
Risk Free Rate includes inflation
  • This is the return on an investment with zero risk, typically represented by government bonds like U.S. Treasury bills.
  • It accounts for inflation and is considered the baseline rate of return.
  • Example: If the current inflation rate is 2% and Treasury bonds yield 3%, then the Risk-Free Rate is 3%.
Volatility: The volatility of the company versus the market
  • measures how much the stock price fluctuates relative to the overall market.
  • It's often represented by beta (β) in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), where β > 1 means the stock is more volatile than the market.
  • For example, a volatility of 1.2 indicates the stock is 20% more volatile than the market.
Outperformance: how much we expect stocks to outperform government bonds
  • This is the expected premium that equity holders expect stocks to generate over government bonds.
  • It reflects the idea that since stocks are riskier than government bonds, investors expect higher returns.
  • This value could be determined from historical stock market returns minus bond returns. For example, if stocks historically outperform bonds by 4%, the Outperformance might be set to 4%.

cost of capital if we use equity and debt

WACC: Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

securities law and ventures financing

  • serious jail sentences
  • ignorance is no excuse

basic laws

  • potential investors must receive all relevant information before investing

    • all risks
    • this is called an S1
  • if you have been defrauded you should receive compensation

    • class action lawsuits
  • insider information for publicly traded stocks is illegal and results in prison (no excuses)